ข่าวแจ้งตลาดหลักทรัพย์
MD&A Q.2 (30 June 2007)
Attachment 1 / 9
Management's Discussion and Analysis for Business Operations
For the three-month period and six-month period ended June 30, 2007
Business Overview for 2007
Oil Price Situation
For the second quarter of 2007, world oil market was in upward trend as
evidenced by continuously increased in oil price from the first quarter. This
situation was supported by the concerned over possibly supply shortage which
may resulted from political unrest in crude oil production countries and
conflict between UN Nation and Iran regarding nuclear experimentation. In
addition, it was expected that global oil demand growth should be supported by
a stronger fundamental factors than the previous year. Further more, the OPEC
had confirmed not to increase oil production level until next OPEC's meeting
on Sep 11, 2007. These factors had encouraged oil price in this 2nd quarter to
be in an upward trend (average Dubai crude price of the second quarter was
64.82 USD/BBL, 16.9% increased from the first quarter which was 55.43 USD/BBL)
Currently, crude oil price is reaching its highest level in the past 11 months
which is nearly equal to last year's highest price. It is expected that OPEC
may decide to increase oil production in the next meeting. The Hedge Fund may
unwind their position to realize profit. These anticipated factors may
encourage the crude oil price to be rather weak sometimes in the second half
of the year. In order to cope with this uncertain market situation, the
Company has set an effective inventory control measure mainly to mitigate
impacts as may result from this situation.
Refinery Production
The Company has successfully increased its crude run production level to
reached 73.8 KBD in this second quarter which has made the average crude run
production for this first half to be 63.1 KBD, comparing to 54.5 KBD and 60.1
KBD of the year 2006 respectively. This is mainly due to the successful
execution of Fuel Oil Very Low Sulfur (FOVS) export contract with various
Chinese refineries which will crack the FOVS for Gasoline and Gas Oil. Average
volume of FOVS under these contract will be around 100-120 million liters per
month and it shall be valid until the end of 2007. In the mean time, the
Company is in the process of 2008's contract consideration. In addition, the
incident of nuclear power plant in Japan had made demand for fuel oil to
continuously increased as it has been anticipated that the power plant will
have to take time as long as 12 months for rectification. This situation
encouraged Fuel Oil price to be stronger than last year.
Attachment 2 / 9
1. Explanation and Analysis of the Operating Results for second quarter and
first half of 2007 compared with that of the year 2006
1st Half 2007 1st Half 2006
Consolidated Company Consolidated Company
Total Revenues, Million Baht 44,561 44,129 51,874 51,455
Net Profit (Loss), Million Baht 839 791 908 919
Net Profit Margin, % 1.90 1.81 1.78 1.82
Earning Per Share, Baht/Share 0.75 0.71 1.14 1.15
2nd Quarter 2007 2nd Quarter 2006
Consolidated Company Consolidated Company
Total Revenues, Million Baht 24,370 24,138 25,166 24,945
Net Profit (Loss), Million Baht 881 845 393 385
Net Profit Margin, % 3.66 3.54 1.58 1.56
Earning Per Share, Baht/Share 0.79 0.76 0.43 0.42
1.1 Net Profit/(Loss) Analysis
1) For six-month period, the consolidated financial statements recorded
net profit of Baht 839 million, which being the Company's net profit of Baht
791 million and the subsidiary's (Bangchak Green Net Company Limited- BGN) net
profit of Baht 45 million and adjustment of connected transactions of Baht 3
million.
2) For 2nd quarter, the consolidated financial statements recorded net
profit of Baht 881 million, which was being the Company's net profit of Baht
845 million and the subsidiary's net profit of Baht 34 million and connected
transactions adjustment of Baht 2 million.
The Company's EBITDA was Baht 1,444 million, increased from Baht
958 million of the same period last year by Baht 486 million or 50.7%.
Performance breakdown by business unit are as follow;
Attachment 3 / 9
Table: Details of breakdown EBITDA
2nd Quarter,07 2nd Quarter,06 Changing +/ -
(Million Baht) (A) (B) (A) - (B)
(Reviewed) (Revised)
EBITDA 1,444 958 +486
- Refinery 1,362 1,190 +172
- Marketing 82 -232 +314
(Less) Inventory Gain (849) (358) -491
Adjusted EBITDA 595 600 -5
- Refinery 513 832 -319
- Marketing 82 -232 +314
- EBITDA of the Refinery Business was Baht 1,362 million, increased from Baht
1,190 million of the same period of last year. Total Gross Refining Margin
(GRM) for this quarter was 6.27 USD/BBL (included inventory gain due to
crude oil price increased in average), higher than Q2 last year which was
at 6.03 USD/BBL. The Company's crude run was at 73.8 KBD higher than those
of last year which was only at 54.5 KBD. GRM is illustrated as follow;
USD/BBL
2nd Quarter 2nd Quarter Changing
GRM from
2007 2006 +/-
Base GRM 2.47 3.45 -0.98
Improvement Program 0.001 2.97 0.27 4.54 -0.27 (1.57)
Oil Hedging 0.50 0.82 -0.32
Inventory Gain (Loss) 3.30 1.49 +1.81
Total 6.27 6.03 +0.24
Gross Refining Margin - GRM (excluding inventory effects) was 2.97
USD/BBL,lower than that of the same period of last year which was at 4.54
USD/BBL. Base GRM for this quarter itself was decreased from those of last
year by 0.98 USD/BBL mainly due to average market's Gas Oil crack spread was
decreased by 3.15 USD/BBL while Tapis/Dubai spread was increased. Gain from
improvement program and oil hedging was decreased by 0.27 USD/BBL and 0.32
USD/BBL respectively. The reduction in gain from oil hedging was resulted
by the hedged margin as quoted this year was lower than those of last year.
This quarter the company entered into hedged position at only 23% of the
average production level while last year the hedged position was at 54%.
Attachment 4 / 9
Inventory gain for this quarter was equivalent to 3.30 USD/BBL
while it was 1.49 USD/BBL last year. The higher gain was resulting from higher
oil price increasing rate for this quarter than those of last year (reference
average Dubai crude price Q2/Q1 2007 was 16.9% against Q2/Q1 2006 was 11.7%)
- EBITDA of the Marketing Business was Baht 82 million, increased
from Baht -232 million of the same period of last year, since in this quarter
the retail oil prices was adjusted in the manner that better reflect its cost
than those of last year. As a result, Marketing Margin (exclude lubricant
margin) was at 27.4 satang per liter higher than those of last year which was
at the level -11.5 satang per liter. The marketing business sale volume was at
52.7 KBD increased from 52.3 KBD of the same period of last year.
1.2 Income Analysis
1) Total revenues of the Company and its subsidiary for six-month period
of 2007 were Baht 44,561 million, composed of the Company's revenues of Baht
44,129 million and its subsidiary's (BGN) of Baht 6,345 million, adjusted by
connected transaction of Baht 5,913 million which mostly were sale
transactions from the Company to BGN.
2) Total revenues of the Company and its subsidiary for the second quarter
of 2007 were Baht 24,370 million, composed of the Company's revenues of Baht
24,138 million and its subsidiary's (BGN) of Baht 3,446 million, adjusted by
connected transaction of Baht 3,214 million. Major changes from the same
period of last year were as follows:
- Interest income was increased by Baht 32 million to Baht 57 million
or 129% since the Company invested its excess cash (mostly PQI funds raising
proceeds raised at May 2006 and yet to be utilized) into fixed deposit
accounts. As of June 30, 2007, the Company had Baht 3,859 million of fixed
deposit at banks (classified as Baht 2,830 million in "Cash and Cash
Equivalent" and Baht 1,029 million as "Short-term Investment").
- Gain from oil hedging contract was Baht 127 million, decreased by
Baht 70 million or 36%. This quarter, the hedge level was 23% of production
level compared with those of last year at 54%. The reduction in gain from oil
hedging was resulted by the hedged margin as quoted by the market was lower
than those of last year.
- Other incomes-others was Baht 72 million, increased by Baht 46
million or 180% mainly from settlement of damage claim to one of the
company's jetty amount of Baht 26 million and Premium on foreign exchange
hedging contracts of Baht 24 million.
Attachment 5 / 9
1.3 Expense Analysis
1) Total expenses of the Company and its subsidiary for six-month
period of 2007 were Baht 43,722 million, which composed of the Company's
expenses of Baht 43,337 million and its subsidiary's (BGN) of Baht 6,299
million, adjusted by connected transaction of Baht 5,914 million, which mostly
were cost of sales from the Company to BGN.
2) Total expenses of the Company and its subsidiary for the second
quarter of 2007 were Baht 23,489 million, which composed of the Company's
expenses of Baht 23,293 million and its subsidiary's (BGN) of Baht 3,412
million, adjusted by connected transaction of Baht 3,216 million, major
changes from the same period of last year were as follows:
- Interest expense was Baht 167 million, decreased from those of
last year by Baht 20 million or 11%, as the market rate was decreasing 0.5%
p.a. The current cost of debt is at 5.7% p.a.
- Income tax of Baht 273 million, increased by Baht 84 million,
resulted from performance for this second quarter was higher than that of last
year. The corporate income tax for this period has included deferred tax asset
amount Baht 51 million from tax privileges of capital investment program in
accordance with the Royal Decree No. 460 (2nd Quarter, the company has paid
Baht 678 million for the capital investment program, mainly PQI project).
1.4 Profitability Analysis
Gross profit margin has been affected by world oil price fluctuation
which had direct impact to both refining and marketing margin. Gross profit
margin for six-month period and the second quarter of 2007 were 4.2% and 6.4%
respectively, increased from 3.2% and 3.9% of the same period of last year.
This higher gross profit margin came from total refining margin of refinery
business as mentioned in item 1.1 section 2. The net profit margin then
increased from 1.6% in Q2 last year to 3.5% accordingly.
2. Explanation and Analysis of the Financial Position as of June 30, 2007
compared with December 31, 2006
2.1 Assets
1) At the end of the second quarter of 2007, total assets of the Company
and its subsidiary were Baht 39,951 million, which comprised of Baht 39,871
million of the Company's total assets and Baht 472 million of BGN's total
assets, adjusted by connected transactions of Baht 392 million which was from
account receivable of Baht 389 million.
Attachment 6 / 9
2) At the end of the second quarter of 2007, the Company's total assets
increased by Baht 1,928 million, comparing to the end of 2006. The major
changes of assets were as follows:
- Trade account receivable as of June 30, 2007 was Baht 4,274 million
which was increased by Baht 1,146 million or 37% since the Company has
increased export sales of FOVS of which the normal credit term is 30 days.
- Total inventories were Baht 9,791 million, increased by Baht 1,150
million or 13%, due to inventories volume has been increased as per higher
rate of crude utilization.
2.2 Liabilities
1) At the end of the second quarter of 2007, total liabilities of the
Company and its subsidiary were Baht 20,763 million, which comprised of Baht
20,687 million of the Company's total liabilities and Baht 465 million of
BGN's total liabilities, adjusted by connected transactions of Baht 389 million.
2) At the end of the second quarter of 2007, the Company's total
liabilities increased by Baht 1,436 million comparing to the end of 2006. The
major changes of liabilities were as follow:
- Trade accounts payable were Baht 6,048 million, increased by Baht
1,902 million since crude purchase was increased following the increase in
refining production.
2.3 Shareholders' Equity
1) At the end of the second quarter of 2007, the consolidated total
shareholders' equity were Baht 19,188 million, which comprised of Baht 19,184
million from the total shareholders' equity of the Company and Baht 7 million
from BGN's, adjusted by Baht 3 million connected transactions.
2) The Company's total shareholders' equity were increased by Baht 492
million comparing to that at the end of 2006, since the Company generated net
profit of Baht 791 million for the first half of 2007. However, the Company
had amortized Baht 109 million of surpluses on fixed assets revaluation and
had paid for dividend of Baht 190 million.
3) As of June 30, 2007 the Company has financial instruments (CDDR,
convertible debenture, warrant and ESOP) which holders can exercise their
conversion right (subject to the terms and conditions of each instrument), if
fully converted or exercised shall be equal to 287 million common shares or
approximately 20.4% of total shares in fully dilution.
Attachment 7 / 9
3. Explanation and Analysis of the Statement of Cash Flows for six-month
period of 2007
3.1 For this first half of 2007, the Company and its subsidiary had
beginning cash and cash equivalent of Baht 2,705 million. During the period,
the Company received cash from various activities of Baht 2,105 million, of
which Baht 615 million were received from operating activities, Baht 2,231
million were received from investing activities and Baht 741 million were used
in financing activities. Cash and cash equivalent at the end of the second
quarter of 2007 were Baht 4,810 million, which consisted of Baht 4,676 million
of the Company and Baht 134 million of BGN.
3.2 The Company had net profit of Baht 791 million; added back non-cash
items of Baht 546 million, the Company then had cash profit from operation of
Baht 1,337 million together with cash at the beginning of period of Baht 2,599
million. The Company also had additional cash flow activities as follows;
1) Net cash received from working capital was Baht 754 million;
The Company used cash in operating assets of Baht 2,067 million
which consisted of increased in Trade accounts receivable of Baht 1,103
million, increased in inventories value of Baht 1,150 million but other
current assets were decreased by Baht 186 million.
Cash from operating liabilities were increased by Baht 1,313
million consisted of increased in trade accounts payable of Baht 1,914 and
decreased in other operating liabilities of Baht 601 million.
2) Net cash received from investing activities was Baht 2,235 million;
Short term investment was reclassified to cash by Baht 3,016
million since its remaining investment period was less than 3 months.
Investment in fixed assets of Baht 876 million, of which Baht 750
million was PQI's.
Cash received from other investments were Baht 95 million.
3) Net cash used in financing activities was Baht 741 million;
Baht 300 million short-term revolving loan and Baht 251 million
long-term loan were repaid to Krungthai Bank.
Dividend payment was Baht 190 million (total share of common stock
1,119 million at 0.17 Baht per share).
The Company cash and cash equivalents had increased by Baht 2,077
million. When combine with Baht 2,599 million, at the end of the second
quarter of 2007, cash and cash
Attachment 8 / 9
equivalents was Baht 4,676 million which consisted of Baht 1,480
million for operation and Baht 3,196 million appropriated for PQI project.
4. Changing in accounting policy
Since January 1, 2007, the Company changed its accounting policy
regarding investment in a subsidiary so that separate financial statement,
which formerly reported investment using the equity method, now reports using
the cost method. This is to comply with TAS 44. Thus the Company restated its
financial statement by using the historical cost as the cost of the investment
in a subsidiary of the separate financial statement. This adjustment caused
the net income on the separate financial statement to differ permanent from
that reported in the consolidated financial statement. The Company had made
adjustment to retain earning at December 31, 2006 to be increased by Baht 0.49
million which equivalent to equity injections that the Company invested in
Bangchak Green Net in order to reflect investing value by using the historical
cost method. The cumulative effect of the accounting policy has been presented
under the heading of "Cumulative effect of the change in accounting policy for
investments in subsidiary" in the separate financial statements in the
statement of changes in shareholders' equity.
Million Baht
Statement of income 2nd Quarter 2007 2nd Quarter 2006
(The Company Only) Cost Mtd.Equity Mtd.Change+/- Cost Mtd.Equity Mtd.Change+/-
Gain (loss) from - 35 -35 - 3 -3
investment in subsidiary
Balance Sheet June 30, 2007 December 31, 2006
(The Company Only) Cost Mtd.Equity Mtd.Change+/- Cost Mtd.Equity Mtd.Change +/-
Investment 0.49 - +0.49 0.49 - +0.49
in subsidiary
Please be noted that, the change of accounting policy affects only the
separate financial statement. It did not have any effect on the consolidated
financial statements or business fundamentals.
5. Factors and major influences that may affect the Company's performance or
financial status in the future
Major factors affected the performance were the marketing margin and
gross refining margin. For the marketing margin, since the oil prices were
rapidly increased especially after the floating of gasoline and diesel price,
the retail price could increase at a slower rate than the cost increased which
depressed the marketing margin to be at a low level and this incident would
slow down the demand for oil consumption; in other hand, if the oil prices
were decreased, the marketing margin
Attachment 9 / 9
and oil consumption would increase as well. For the refining margin, as a
simple refinery having a high proportion of fuel oil production and the fact
that fuel oil price is always lower than crude price, the Company's gross
refining margin was capped to a certain level depending on the fuel oil price
for each period. Thus the Company has had necessity to attain the long-term
resolution for reducing fuel oil production to enhance gross refining margin
to be at the same level of the industry's. Therefore, the Company has adopted
the Product Quality Improvement project (PQI) by installing the hydro-cracking
unit and other associated units, which will reduce production of fuel oil to
the near level of other local and foreign refineries and hence become a
complex refinery. The Company expects that the project will be started up in
the forth quarter of 2008 and will increase EBITDA from average Baht
2,000-4,000 million to approximately Baht 6,000 - 8,000 million after the
project reach its completion subject to oil price at the period. Currently PQI
project has started its construction, which total project cost (included
contingency reserve) totaling Baht 15,369 million or equivalent to USD 378
million. The Company has appointed CTCI Overseas Corporation Limited and CTCI
(Thailand) Co., Ltd. to be contractors of the PQI under fixed price, date
certain and performance guaranteed arrangement. The Company has achieved its
financial closure for sources of funds for the project since May 16, 2006. The
project is now on the process of construction and overall progress at June
2007 is 34.1% compare to plan of 33.6%.
The oil prices will still be major parameters effecting operating
result of the Company. Furthermore, another factor which may have effect on
the Company's performance is the foreign exchange fluctuation (mostly Baht and
USD). The Company purchases oil on US dollar term and sell its product on US
(more)