SET Announcements
) Opinion Report of IFA - Connected Transaction
1. Book Value 11,461.53-14,155.29 16.32-17.28
2. Historical Market Value 11,602.33-12,920.36 13.38-14.90
3. Discount Cash flow 12,089.31-25,732.31 13.94-17.87
4. Market Multiples - PER 10,830.05-13,889.39 12.49-16.02
5. Market Multiples - P/BV 17,401.99-45,712.59 20.07-52.72
6. Market Multiples - EV/EBITDA (2,388.80)-4,200.24 (2.75)-4.84
Subordinated convertible debentures
BCP plans to issue subordinated convertible debentures not exceeding 189,000
units or Baht 1,890 million with time to maturity 10 years and not more
than 5% per year (semiannual) to PPT in order to finance PQI. The par
value and exercise price range of convertible debenture are 10,000 Baht per
unit and between 14-16 Baht per share that is equal to private placement
price range of PTT respectively. The convertible debenture holder can
convert convertible debenture in every quarter since 2006 onward.
Normally, the convertible debenture is equal to bond and call option
altogether. And a value of warrant at maturity date is current market price
minus exercise price or zero based on which one is higher. For example, as of
August 23, 2005, if BCP's share price is 14.20 Baht, the intrinsic value of
call option is zero due to market price less than exercise price.
The Financial Advisor applies Black-Scholes Model that is widely accepted way
to evaluate warrants. The details are follows:
Assumption:
BCP's share price is 14.20 Baht per share as of August 23, 2005
Risk free rate is 5% based on yield of 10 year Thai Treasury bond as of
August 23, 2005
Volatility of BCP's share return is 29.78% over past 1 year and 53.36% over
past 3 years as of August 26, 2005
Warrant, which will be expired in next 10 years, can be calculated as follows:
Over 1 year Over 3 year
(Since August 23, 2004) (Since August 23, 2002)
Volatility of return 29.78% 53.36%
Warrant
(Baht per Unit) 6.33 9.15
However, the Financial Advisor has an opinion that the volatility over past
1 year is more suitable for valuation of warrant than over 3 years because
the Financial Advisor intends to avoid effect of financial restructure of BCP
in 2004. The warrant value is 6.33 Baht per unit.
For calculating only straight bond, the Financial Advisor has to split up
warrant from convertible debenture. The calculation is in following table.
Convertible Debenture 10,000.00 Baht
Price of straight bond 5,943.35 Baht
Warrant Price 4,219.06 Baht
Yield of straight bond 12.51%
The information in above table can be concluded that yield of straight bond
which comes from convertible debenture is higher than yield of ordinary
straight bond of comparable companies in energy sector that is 5% plus
120 to 150 basis points or 6.20% to 6.50%. However, BCP actually plans to
issue straight equity that has an expected return on equity at 21.87% to PTT
in first stage but BCP will issue convertible debenture instead in order to
relieve effect of dilution effect to existing shareholders. Hence, the
Financial Advisor concludes that the yield of BCP's convertible debenture,
which is 12.10%, is not too higher if BCP plans to issue all straight equity
to PTT. Besides, the convertible debenture is subordinated bond that has
second priority than secured bond and not like the BCP-DR1 guaranteed by
Ministry of Finance.
4. Summary of Financial Advisor opinions
According to investing in Product Quality Improvement (PQI) or Hydrocracking
Unit about $250-350 million, BCP plans to issue common stocks and subordinated
convertible debentures to PTT and financial institutions approximately
$150 million and borrow from commercial bank for balancing the project
investment. For PTT transaction, BCP issues common stocks and subordinated
convertible debentures to PPT not more than $120 million. The detail is follows:
PTT
Number of shares Price Range or Conversion price
(Baht per Share)
Common stock Less than 283,000,000 14.00-16.00
Subordinated
convertible debentures Less than 135,000,000 14.00-16.00
PTT will buy BCP's common shares in regard to private placement with price
range between 14.00 and 16.00 Baht per share. PTT proposes to buy common
shares not more than 283 million shares or 4,528 million shares and to buy
subordinated convertible debentures not more than 189,000 units or 1,890
million Baht. The conversion price is between 14 and 16 Baht per share.
The price range that PTT will buy BCP shares is close to market price as
August 26, 2005 because BCP plan to enhance benefit for PTT in order to
compensate operating and financial risks from investing in PQI. Conversely,
from the acquisition of BCP's share by PPT, BCP and PTT would earn synergy
each other from enhancing an operating performance and reducing a business
risk because PTT is oil company leader in Thailand which owns almost half
of crude, finished oil products, and gas stations in Thailand. PTT is also
expert in refinery and trading oils in Thailand so PTT would help BCP in
both operation and technique. Normally, when PTT invests in any companies,
it plans to invest in long term. Its investment would build a good image and
a confidence for investors. Finally, BCP is still Thai company for Thai people.
From all valuation methods, the Financial Advisor believes that discounted
cash flow is most suitable for BCP since it considers changing in future
incidents of BCP, future operation of BCP and projects of BCP. Therefore,
equity value calculated by discounted cash flow is fair and referral for
evaluating value of BCP's shares acquired by PTT. PTT, which plans to buy BCP
shares not more than 283 million shares, will invest from 3,945.02 million
Baht to 5,057.21 million Baht or from 13.94 to 17.87 Baht per share up to size
of PQI project. In addition to discounted cash flow, book value and historical
market value methods also support discounted cash flow method because BCP's
prices from book value and historical market value methods are close to
price from discounted cash flow. The price range from book value is from
16.32 to 17.28 Baht per share. The book value method represents normal
operation of BCP but it may have to adjust effects from high volatility of
oil price. The historical market value method reflects both retail investor
and financial institute perspectives. The price range of this method is
13.38-14.11 Baht per share. In opposition, the Financial Advisor would not
recommend market multiples method because different accounting method, rare
comparable companies and uncertainty future incidents affect it.
In short, when comparing between price range of Financial Advisor from
13.94 to 17.87 Baht per share or from 3,945.02 to 5,057.21 million Baht
and tentative price range of PTT from 14 to 16 Baht per share or from
3,962.0 to 4,528.0 million Baht, the Financial Advisor do believes that
the transaction between BCP and PTT is suitable and fair because those price
ranges are intersected each other.
For subordinated convertible debenture, BCP plans to issue not more than
189,000 units with term not more than 10 years and interest not more than
5% per year (assumed paying semiannual interest) to PTT. If the Financial
Advisor splits off the call option from subordinated convertible debentures,
the pure bond of subordinated convertible debenture gives yield to bondholder
higher than ordinary straight bond of comparable companies in energy sector
between 6.20% and 6.50%. Indeed, BCP intends to issue all straight equity
that gives yield at 21.87% to PTT but BCP doesn't want to build high
dilution effects to shareholders. Thus, even the subordinated convertible
debenture gives yield higher than ordinary straight bond, the yield of
subordinated convertible debenture is still less than return to equity.
Furthermore, the subordinated convertible debenture is unsecured bond and
not guaranteed by Ministry of Finance; therefore, PTT will bear more risk
than BCP-DR1. In brief, the subordinated convertible debenture would be fair.
The Financial Advisor can conclude as follows:
The Financial Advisor agrees that the price range of BCP's share acquired by
PTT is fair and reasonable for existing shareholders but the convertible
debentures acquired by PTT may be cheaper than fair value of convertible
debentures. Conversely, BCP intends to issue all common stock in the first
place.So, if assuming convertible debentures as common stocks, then the
convertible debentures will be reasonable and relieve consequence from
dilution effect. In conclusion, from all above reasons, the common shares
and convertible debentures issued for PTT are fair and existing BCP
shareholders are going to earn upside benefit from PQI in the future. PQI
is one of the most valuable projects for BCP because it will improve product
mix to be more valuable and financial status in the future.
Besides, existing shareholders should consider investing in PQI because it
imposes risks in regard to time of construction, investment budget,
contractors and operation after finishing the construction.
4.1 Opinion of Financial Advisor to voting shareholders
From all above reasons, the Financial Advisor believes the allocation of
common stocks and/or convertible debenture thru private placement to PTT
will give the additional benefits to BCP and BCP's shareholders in long term.
The voting shareholders should approve the connected transaction because this
transaction with price range 14-16 Baht per share is reasonable and fair
and the successfulness of PQI depended on financial support will enhance
the business competence, long-term benefit of BCP's operation and value
added to all shareholders.
However, the approval resolution from shareholder meeting to execute this
transaction is depended on shareholders' considerations. The Financial
Advisor just discloses all related information and give the opinion based
on accuracy of information received from BCP, Financial Advisor of BCP,
interview from management and employees of BCP. The Financial Advisor did
not perform an independent audit or verification for the accuracy and
completeness all disclosed information.
Finally, all shareholders should study and consider all information attached
with invitation letter in order to make accurate decisions.
4.2 Sources of information and assumption
The sources of information used in the consideration of the connected
transaction are follows:
-Form to request the Resolution of the Shareholders Meeting for a Waiver
of Tender Offer (Form 247-7) as of September 20,2005
-Letter informing the resolution of Board of Directors Meeting No. 9/2005
of the Bangchak Petroleum Public Company Limited ("BCP" or "the Company")
on August 29, 2005
-Letter informing the resolution of Board of Directors Meeting No. 8/2005
of the PTT Public Company Limited ("PTT" or "the Waiver") on August 29, 2005
- Financial statement of 2002 to 2004 and financial statement of 1Q2005
and 2Q2005
-Annual report of (56-1) of 2002 to 2004
-Information memorandum of BCP as of June 10, 2005 conducted by Turnaround
-Overview and trend of the oil market: An implication for Thailand as of
July 20, 2005conducted by Petroleum Institute of Thailand
- Article of Affidavit, memorandum of association and shareholders list of
BCP and PTT
As the independent financial advisor, our opinion is based on information
from BCP, other advisors of BCP, interview from management and employees of
BCP and external environment. The Financial Advisor has assumed that the
information used is accurate and complete; therefore, if the information
used is not accurate and complete or significantly changed in the future,
the opinion of the Financial Advisor will be affected accordingly.
The Financial Advisor certifies that the Financial Advisor has studied and
considered all information with discrete based upon professional standard
and benefit of existing shareholders as priority.
Yours Sincerely,
(Mr. Montree Sornpaisarn)
Chief Executive Officer
Kim Eng Securities (Thailand)
Public Company Limited