Focus on Q3’19:

  • Concern of tighten supply from rising tensions between the U.S. and Iran.
  • Supply disruption in Iran, Venezuela and Libya as U.S. Sanction and economic crisis.
  • OPEC+ production cut extension to Mar’20.
  • IMO starts to effect refinery margin positively as expectation.
  • Worsening U.S.-China Trade Tensions.
  • U.S. new crude oil export pipelines and infrastructure will start operations.

Market Highlights in 2019:

  • Concern of supply disruption, risks remain high for Iran, broader Middle East, Venezuela, and Libya.
  • Higher sweet crude oil’s demand before implementing IMO2020.
  • Trade tension between US & China impacting to world economic and oil demand.
  • IEA cut its demand growth forecast for 2019 by 100,000 BPD to 1.2 MBD, citing worsening prospects for world trade.
  • U.S. production spike to 12-14 MBD.

Focus on Q3’19:

  • Gasoline crack will be supported by massive fire at Philadelphia Energy Solutions' refinery (330 KBD), more west-bound shipments from Asia among firm U.S. demand during driving season.
  • Strong gasoil crack will be supported by growing marine gasoil demand ahead of IMO 2020; but pressured by soft regional demand during monsoon season
  • Fuel oil crack will be supported by FO demand during peak summer season in Middle East and lower arbitrage inflows from West to Singapore.

Market Highlights in 2019:

  • Strong middle distillates on healthy demand growth and additional marine gas oil volumes ahead of IMO2020
  • The fuel oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall over 2019 on the back of continued refinery modernization and implementing 0.5%S bunker
  • Demand growth for gasoline in China and India will be slightly increased, however, outstrip supplies from their new refineries.