Focus on Q3/20:

  • Crude oil prices rise on weaker dollar.
  • Demand recovery after economic activities are back, as several governments ease lockdown policies.
  • The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages lend some support to global economy.
  • OPEC+ will reduce oil output cuts at 7.7 MMBD from 9.7 MMBD through Dec’20.

Market Highlights in 2020:

  • Several countries and regions are relaxing lockdowns put in place to contain the virus. Expected oil demand recovering after Covid-19 impact.
  • OPEC+ to continue its production cut Agreement. Shale producers and oil majors are also reducing production
  • Middle East crude supply concerns as geopolitical tension between U.S. and Iran.
  • With the devastating COVID-19 spreading across the world, IEA now expects global oil demand to decline by 8.1 MMBD y-o-y in 2020. Global oil demand is expected to be 91.9 MMBD.
  • Second wave COVID-19 is of concern.
  • Trade tension between U.S. & China impacting to world economic and oil demand.

Focus on Q3/20:

  • Gasoil crack will be supported as demand recovery from industrial production resumption and consumer spending.
  • Gasoline crack will be supported as lockdown restrictions were lifted in various parts of the world however potential return of Chinese exports and second wave COVID-19 in the U.S. is of concern, given that it is the world’s top gasoline consumer.
  • Fuel oil crack will be pressured by sustained low HSFO demand for bunker fuel, due to the shift towards LSFO.

Market Highlights in 2020:

  • Expected manufacturing and industrial recovering after Covid-19 impact.
  • The Fuel Oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall on the back of continued refinery modernization and implementing 0.5%S bunker.
  • Expected growth in Middle Distillate consumption will recover after Covid-19 under control.
  • HSFO will be replaced by Marine Gasoil and Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil.