Focus on Q4’20:

  • Pfizer announced promising results for its COVID-19 vaccine
  • The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages lend some support to global economy
  • OPEC+ will reduce oil output cuts at 7.7 MMBD through Dec’20
  • Uncertainty over COVID-19 situation during winter; several countries in Europe have imposed new lockdowns and travel restrictions
  • Concern of Libya’s output recovery

Market Highlights in 2021:

  • Several countries and regions are relaxing lockdowns put in place to contain the virus. Expected oil demand recovering after Covid-19 impact
  • Progress of Covid-19 vaccines should halt the pandemic
  • OPEC+ is to continue its production cut Agreement
  • For 2021, IEA expected in October oil demand at 97.2 MMBD, which would be a gain of 5.5 MMBD from 2020
  • Uncertainty over COVID-19 situation

Focus on Q4’20:

  • Gasoil crack will be pressured by high stock in all regions.
  • Gasoline crack will be stabled as US gasoline demand is expected to stay weak as a result of the pandemic however COVID-19 vaccine had proven to be more than 90% effective in a phase 3 trial.
  • Fuel oil crack will be supported as refiners are cutting their run rates and demand from bunker and power sector.

Market Highlights in 2021:

  • Expected manufacturing and industrial recovering after Covid-19 impact.
  • The Fuel Oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall on the back of continued refinery modernization and implementing 0.5%S bunker.
  • Expected growth in Middle Distillate consumption will recover after Covid-19 under control.
  • HSFO will be replaced by Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil.