Massive vaccines rollout are being distribute worldwide, continued global demand recovery after eased lockdowns.
Demand from gas-to-oil is expected to rise as high gas price, some power plants and industrials change to use oil as fuel
OPEC+ gradually increase supply by 0.4 mmb/d from Aug-Dec’21
Uncertainty over Covid-19 situation as Delta coronavirus variant rising in several countries.
Stronger U.S. dollar was also weighing on prices.
Market Highlights in 2022:
Many countries and regions are easing lockdowns as the pandemic largely comes under control. Expected oil demand recovering after Covid-19 impact.
In Y2021, EIA forecast global oil demand will recover from Y2020, by 5.05 mmb/d to 97.47 mmb/d, remains subject to heighted level of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
EIA Oct’21 expect Y2021 US production will average 11.0 MBD, increasing to 11.7 MBD in Y2022 as tight oil production rises in the US.
Concerned of supply increase as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are making progress.
Concern of new policy of FED may eventual withdrawal of monetary policy support.