Focus on Q4’21:

  • Gasoil crack will be strong as the reopening of economies with the seasonal heating demand during winter amid high natural gas price will boost demand from gas-to-oil switching
  • Gasoline crack will be supported as the strength demand recovery after more countries ease restrictions amid tighter regional supplies due to less export from China as limited export quotas
  • Low Sulfur Fuel oil crack will be supported as the seasonal uptick for bunker demand on improving global trade ahead of the festive season and gas-to-oil switching demand for utilities.

Market Highlights in 2022:

  • The continued demand recovery to pre-COVID levels as COVID-19 stabilizes amid widespread vaccination
  • Expected growth in manufacturing and industrial demand will recover after Covid-19
  • The resumption of air travel after more countries gradual lifting of travel restrictions
  • The Low Sulfur Fuel Oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall on the back of continued refinery modernization.

Focus on Q4’21:

  • Massive vaccines rollout are being distribute worldwide, continued global demand recovery after eased lockdowns.
  • Demand from gas-to-oil is expected to rise as high gas price, some power plants and industrials change to use oil as fuel
  • OPEC+ gradually increase supply by 0.4 mmb/d from Aug-Dec’21
  • Uncertainty over Covid-19 situation as Delta coronavirus variant rising in several countries.
  • Stronger U.S. dollar was also weighing on prices.

Market Highlights in 2022:

  • Many countries and regions are easing lockdowns as the pandemic largely comes under control. Expected oil demand recovering after Covid-19 impact.
  • In Y2021, EIA forecast global oil demand will recover from Y2020, by 5.05 mmb/d to 97.47 mmb/d, remains subject to heighted level of uncertainty related to the ongoing recovery from the COVID-19 pandemic.
  • EIA Oct’21 expect Y2021 US production will average 11.0 MBD, increasing to 11.7 MBD in Y2022 as tight oil production rises in the US.
  • Concerned of supply increase as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are making progress.
  • Concern of new policy of FED may eventual withdrawal of monetary policy support.