BCP 26.25 THB +0.25 (0.96%)

Focus on Q3’21:

  • Massive vaccines rollout are being distribute worldwide, continued global demand recovery after eased lockdowns.
  • Hurricane season in GoM.
  • OPEC+ gradually increase supply by 0.4 mmb/d from Aug-Dec’21
  • Uncertainty over Covid-19 situation as Delta coronavirus variant rising in several countries.
  • Stronger U.S. dollar was also weighing on prices.

Market Highlights in 2021:

  • Many countries and regions are relaxing lockdowns as the pandemic largely comes under control. Expected oil demand recovering after Covid-19 impact.
  • Progress of Covid-19 mass vaccination should halt the pandemic.
  • In 2021, EIA forecast global oil demand will recover by 5.3 mmb/d to 97.6 mmb/d (lower from 5.4 mmb/d YoY in the previous report), as rising of new Delta variant and lower vaccination campaigns in Asia continue to pressured oil demand.
  • Uncertainty over Covid-19 situation.
  • Concerned of supply increase as U.S.-Iran nuclear talks are making progress.
  • Concern of new policy of FED may eventual withdrawal of monetary policy support.

Focus on Q3’21:

  • Gasoil crack will be supported by demand recovery in Europe after gradually easing lockdowns however Asia demand recovery under pressure as Covid-19 resurgence.
  • Gasoline crack will be supported as demand from U.S. is expected to be higher during driving season and Covid-19 under control.
  • Fuel oil crack will be supported as lower arrivals from the West during summer driving demand peaks. European refiners will likely prioritize the production of gasoline over VLSFO.

Market Highlights in 2021:

  • Expected manufacturing and industrial recovering after Covid-19 impact.
  • Expected growth in Middle Distillate consumption will recover after Covid-19 under control.
  • The continued demand recovery in U.S. from massive vaccines rollout will boost gasoline consumption in U.S.
  • The Fuel Oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall on the back of continued refinery modernization and implementing 0.5%S bunker.