Supply could be squeezed further if the EU imposes an embargo on Russian oil.
OPEC+ stick to existing agreement with 432,000 BPD rise in May
Libya supply loss due to disruptions from protests
IMF cuts global GDP growth forecast for 2022 from 4.4% to 3.6% from Russia’s war in Ukraine and warns of further cuts if western countries expand their sanctions against Russia.
Concerns on China lockdown hit oil demand
IEA members to release 1.3 MMBD oil over 6 months
Two-month truce in Yemen would reduce oil supply threat
Market Highlights in 2022:
Oil demand recovering more slowly: higher recession risk
Lower supply due to sanctions on Russian oil
Supply uncertainty from Libya outages and prolong Iranian sanctions lifting.
Geopolitical supply risks in MENA
OPEC+ production quota policy
China stimulus hopes after economic hit by COVID-19
Supply increase as U.S. and Iran nuclear talks.
Low global oil products inventory, refineries will need to run harder
Strong dollar index on potential US interest rate rise
Gasoil crack will be continued strong amid supply uncertainties with concerns over supply as Russia-Ukraine tensions and against the backdrop of extremely low global inventory levels as well as continued demand recovery from the reopening of economies
Gasoline crack will be supported as the strength demand recovery after more countries eased restrictions and further border reopening amid the refinery maintenance in Asia
Low Sulfur Fuel oil crack will be supported as higher gasoil cracks are incentivizing refiners to move sulfur cutter supply away from marine fuel production. US refiners pay up for cargoes from the Middle East at levels Asian refiners weren’t willing to pay
Market Highlights in 2022:
The continued demand recovery to pre-COVID levels as relax restrictions and further border reopening due to the lower severity of COVID-19 variant amid widespread and booster vaccination
Expected growth in manufacturing and industrial demand will recover after Covid-19
The resumption of air travel after more countries gradual lifting of travel restrictions
The Low Sulfur Fuel Oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall on the back of continued refinery modernization and will be supported by lower supply due to refiners move sulfur cutter supply away from marine fuel