Focus on Q4’19:
- In preparation for IMO 2020, refiners would favour lighter sweeter crude rather than heavy sour.
- Concern of tighten supply from rising tensions in the Middle East.
- Supply disruption in Iran, Venezuela and Libya as U.S. Sanction and economic crisis.
- OPEC may decide to implement some measures, e.g. output cut extension, to balance the market further.
- Worsening U.S.-China Trade Tensions.
- Increasing U.S. crude exports, given that pipelines come online to ease constraints.
Market Highlights in 2019:
- OPEC+ production cut extension to Mar’2020.
- Concern of supply disruption, risks remain high for Iran, broader Middle East, Venezuela, and Libya.
- Higher sweet crude oil’s demand before implementing IMO2020.
- Trade tension between U.S. & China impacting to world economic and oil demand.
- IEA cut its demand growth forecast for 2019 by 100,000 BPD to 1.0 MBD, citing worsening prospects for world trade.
- Increasing U.S. crude exports, given that pipelines come online to ease constraints.
Focus on Q4’19:
- Strong gasoil crack will be supported from winter demand and growing marine gasoil demand ahead of IMO 2020.
- Gasoline crack will be pressured by weaken demand during winter in Atlantic Basin and North Asia.
- Fuel oil crack will be pressured by continuous lower HSFO bunker demand before implementing IMO 2020.
Market Highlights in 2019:
- Strong middle distillates on healthy demand growth and additional marine gas oil volumes ahead of IMO2020.
- The fuel oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall over 2019 on the back of continued refinery modernization and implementing 0.5%S bunker.
- Demand growth for gasoline in China and India will be slightly increased, however, outstrip supplies from their new refineries.
