BCP 25.00 THB - (-%)

Focus on Q1’21:

  • Many countries have been running Coronavirus vaccination in priority populations
  • The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages lend some support to global economy
  • OPEC+ would hold output steady in Feb and Mar while allowing Russia and Kazakhstan to raise output by a modest 75,000 bpd in Feb and a further 75,000 bpd in Mar.
  • Saudi Arabia voluntary oil output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in Feb-Mar
  • Uncertainty over COVID-19 situation
  • Concern of Libya’s output recovery

Market Highlights in 2021:

  • Several countries and regions are relaxing lockdowns put in place to contain the virus. Expected oil demand recovering after Covid-19 impact
  • Progress of Covid-19 mass vaccination should halt the pandemic
  • In 2021, IEA forecast global oil demand will recover by 5.7 million b/d to 96.9 mb/d, about 3.1 million b/d below the pre-COVID-19 level in 2019.
  • Uncertainty over COVID-19 situation
  • Potentially higher OPEC+ production if higher crude price and demand

Focus on Q1’21:

  • Gasoil crack will be supported by higher heating oil demand during winter due to cold than normal however a persistent COVID-19 in Europe and COVID-19 resurgence in Asia would hurt any substantial demand recovery among high stock in all regions.
  • Gasoline crack will supported as hopes on vaccines availability, recover driving activities after easing lockdowns and low inventory levels in US.
  • Fuel oil crack will be pressured as HSFO importers such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Bangladesh entered a shoulder season for fuel oil demand as temperature got lower and lower HSFO bunker demand replacing by VLSFO.

Market Highlights in 2021:

  • Expected manufacturing and industrial recovering after Covid-19 impact.
  • The Fuel Oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall on the back of continued refinery modernization and implementing 0.5%S bunker.
  • Expected growth in Middle Distillate consumption will recover after Covid-19 under control.
  • HSFO will be replaced by Low-Sulfur Fuel Oil.