BCP 26.50 THB +0.25 (0.95%)

Focus on Q2’19:

  • OPEC+ agree to cut output continuously lead by Saudi Arabia
  • Supply disruption in Iran & Venezuela as U.S. Sanction and economic crisis
  • Horizontal Shale oil rigs were declined continually since the beginning of this year.
  • Lower oil demand’s as worldwide refinery turnaround.
  • Trade tension between US & China impacting to world economic and oil demand

Market Highlights in 2019:

  • Supply disruption in Venezuela & Iran (U.S. sanction)
  • Will OPEC+ remain to agree cut oil output in second half of 2019?
  • Higher sweet crude oil’s demand before implementing IMO2020
  • U.S. production spike to 12-14 MBD if debottlenecking Permian’s pipeline facility will be completed
  • IMF declines world economic growth forecasts in 2019 by 0.2% to 3.5% due to US & China trade tension
  • China revised the lower economic growth target from 6.0-6.5%to 6.0 in 2019 compared with last year’s target of “around” 6.5 percent

Focus on Q2’19:

  • Lower China’s gasoline export quota as swapped instead of diesel and jet export quota
  • Asia’s refineries into spring turnaround
  • Gasoline crack will be supported by lower China’s export
  • Strong gasoil crack will be pressured by higher China’s export; but, supported by Asia’s refineries turnaround
  • Lower fuel oil arbitrage from West to Asia due to decreased OPEC+ heavy output and declined heavy crude export of Venezuela as U.S. sanction

Market Highlights in 2019:

  • Strong middle distillates on healthy demand growth and additional marine gas oil volumes ahead of IMO2020
  • The fuel oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall over 2019 on the back of continued refinery modernization and implementing 0.5%S bunker
  • Demand growth for gasoline in China and India will be slightly increased, however, outstrip supplies from their new refineries.