Many countries have been running Coronavirus vaccination in priority populations
The massive monetary and fiscal stimulus packages lend some support to global economy
OPEC+ would hold output steady in Feb and Mar while allowing Russia and Kazakhstan to raise output by a modest 75,000 bpd in Feb and a further 75,000 bpd in Mar.
Saudi Arabia voluntary oil output cuts of 1 million barrels per day (bpd) in Feb-Mar
Uncertainty over COVID-19 situation
Concern of Libya’s output recovery
Market Highlights in 2021:
Several countries and regions are relaxing lockdowns put in place to contain the virus. Expected oil demand recovering after Covid-19 impact
Progress of Covid-19 mass vaccination should halt the pandemic
In 2021, IEA forecast global oil demand will recover by 5.7 million b/d to 96.9 mb/d, about 3.1 million b/d below the pre-COVID-19 level in 2019.
Uncertainty over COVID-19 situation
Potentially higher OPEC+ production if higher crude price and demand
Gasoil crack will be supported by higher heating oil demand during winter due to cold than normal however a persistent COVID-19 in Europe and COVID-19 resurgence in Asia would hurt any substantial demand recovery among high stock in all regions.
Gasoline crack will supported as hopes on vaccines availability, recover driving activities after easing lockdowns and low inventory levels in US.
Fuel oil crack will be pressured as HSFO importers such as Saudi Arabia, Pakistan and Bangladesh entered a shoulder season for fuel oil demand as temperature got lower and lower HSFO bunker demand replacing by VLSFO.
Market Highlights in 2021:
Expected manufacturing and industrial recovering after Covid-19 impact.
The Fuel Oil’s supply in the worldwide will be continued to fall on the back of continued refinery modernization and implementing 0.5%S bunker.
Expected growth in Middle Distillate consumption will recover after Covid-19 under control.
